Senate Predictions

Here are my final Senate Predictions

Red are the Democrats and blue are the Republicans. The only one that I am not 100% confident in is the Franken-Coleman race. This is the only race Sabato and I disagree on. But I think the Obama coattails will help Franken. Still, I'm only about 50% confident on this one.

Also watch the Kentucky and Georgia races. They might be closer. Chambliss might even lose, but I doubt it.

Final Senate Predictions: Democrats 57, Republicans 41, Independents 2

Sabato House Race Predictions

Larry Sabato made his final predictions for the House of Representatives.

Sabato and I both agree that the Texas 22nd, Pennsylvania 11th and Florida 16th are the only Republican pick ups.

We agree on 433 seats and only disagree on two of them. They are the following:

Florida 25th - Sabato(Garcia), Trotter (Diaz-Balart)

Washington 8th - Sabaot(Bruner), Trotter (Reichert)

More news yet to come.

Gubernatorial Predictions

My Gubernatorial predictions.

Democrats are red, Republicans are blue.

Pretty much ever expert projects it the same way.

Democrats +1

Congressional Predictions

Since there is less than 72 hours before the first polls close, I felt that I needed to start posting my predictions. I will start with some of the Congressional races. Not only will I try to predict the winner, but pick the percentages as well.

Listed are the races to watch. I was going to add all, but it would just take too much time. So I will list the races to watch on Tuesday. So where we go!

Incumbent Party in bold.

* - Districts where the outcome is probably predictable, but don't be surprised if it gets closer than expected.

Alabama 2nd - Jay Love (R) 51.6%, Bobby Bright (D)48.4% - Republican Hold

Alabama 5th - Parker Griffith (D) 53.5%, Wayne Parker (R) 46.5% - Democratic Hold

At-Large - Ethan Berkowitz (D) 52.2%, Don Young (R-Inc) 47.1%, Don Wright (AKIP) .7% - Democratic Pick-Up

Arizona 1st - Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 51.7%, Sydney Hay (R) 46.3%, Brent Maupin (I) 1%, Thane Eichenauer (L) 1% - Democratic Pick-Up

Arizona 3rd - John Shadegg (R-Inc) 52.2%, Bob Lord (D) 46.8%, Michael Shoen (L) 1% - Republican Hold

Arizona 5th - Harry Mitchell (D-Inc) 55%, David Schweikert (R) 44%, Warren Severin (L) 1% - Democratic Hold

Arizona 8th - Gabrielle Giffords (D-Inc) 54.5%, Timothy Bee (R) 44.5%, Paul Davis (L) 1% - Democratic Hold

California 3rd - Dan Lungren (R-Inc) 54%, Bill Durston (D) 46% - Republican Hold

California 4th - Charlie Brown (D) 51.2%, Tom McClintock (R) 48.8% - Democratic Pick-Up

California 11th - Jerry McNerney (D-Inc) 54.3%, Dean Andal (R) 45.7% - Democratic Hold

*California 26th - David Drier (R-Inc) 56%, Russ Warner (D) 46% - Republican Hold

California 50th - Brian Bilbray (R-Inc) 50.2%, Nick Leibham (D) 49.3%, Wayne Dunlap (L) .5% - Republican Hold

Colorado 4th - Betsy Markey (D) 52.3%, Marilyn Musgrave (R-Inc) 47.7% - Democratic Pick-Up

Connecticut 4th - Jim Himes (D) 50.2%, Christopher Shays (R-Inc) 49.8% - Democratic Pick-Up

Florida 8th - Alan Grayson (D) 53%, Ric Keller (R-Inc) 47% - Democratic Pick-Up

Florida 13th - Vern Buchanan (R-Inc) 56%, Christine Jennings (D) 44% - Republican Hold

Florida 16th - Tom Rooney (R) 62%, Tim Mahoney (D-Inc) 38% - Republican Pick-Up

Florida 21st - Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Inc), 50.1%, Raul Martinez (D) 49.9% - Republican Hold

Florida 24th - Susan Kosmas (D) 55%, Tom Feeney (R-Inc) 45% - Democratic Pick-Up

Florida 25th - Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Inc) 51.8%, Joe Garcia (D) 48.2% - Republican Hold.

Georgia 12th - John Barrow (D-Inc) 53%, John Stone (R) 47% - Democratic Hold

Iowa 4th - Tom Latham (R-Inc) 53%, Becky Greenwald (D) 47% - Republican Hold

Idaho 1st - Walt Minnick (D) 50.4%, Bill Sali (R-Inc) 49.6% - Democratic Pick-up

Illinois 8th - Melissa Bean (D-Inc) 53%, Steve Greenberg (R)47% - Democratic Hold

Illinois 10th - Dan Seals (D) 50.5%, Mark Kirk (R-Inc) 49.5% - Democratic Pick-Up

Illinois 11th - Debbie Halvorson (D) 51%, Marty Ozinga (R) 45%, Jason Wallace (G) 4% - Democratic Pick-Up

Illinois 14th - Bill Foster (D-Inc) 52%, Jim Oberweis (R) 48% - Democratic Hold

Indiana 3rd - Mark Souder (R-Inc) 49.1%, Mike Montagano (D) 48.9%, Bill Larsen (L) 2% - Republican Hold

*Indiana 4th - Steven Buyer (R-Inc) 57%, Nels Ackerson (D) 43% - Republican Hold

Indiana 9th - Baron Hill (D-Inc) 50%, Mike Sodrel (R) 45%, Eric Schansberg (L) 5% - Democratic Hold

Kansas 2nd - Nancy Boyda (D-Inc) 52%, Lynn Jenkins (R) 48% - Democratic Hold

Kentucky 2nd - Brett Guthrie (R) 53%, David Bowsell (D) 47% - Republican Hold

Maryland 1st - Andrew Harris (R) 53%, Frank Kratovil (D) 47% - Republican Hold

Michigan 7th - Mark Schauer (D) 53%, Tim Walberg (R-Inc) 47% - Democratic Pick Up

Michigan 9th - Gary Peters (D) 51%, Joe Knollenberg (R-Inc) 47%, Jack Kevorkian (I) 2% - Democratic Pick Up

*Minnesota 2nd - John Kline (R-Inc) 56%, Steve Sarvi (D) 44% - Republican Hold

Minnesota 3rd - Erik Paulsen (R) 47%, Ashwin Madia (D) 46%, David Dillon (MIP) 7% - Republican Hold

Minnesota 6th - Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) 48%, Michelle Bachmann (R-Inc) 46%, Bob Anderson (MIN) 6% - Democratic Pick Up

*Missouri 6th - Sam Graves (R-Inc) 52%, Kay Barnes (D) 46%, David Browning (L) 2% - Republican Hold

Missouri 9th - Blane Luetkemeyer (R) 52%, Judy Baker (D) 48% - Republican Hold

North Carolina 8th - Larry Kissel (D) 51%, Robin Hayes (R-Inc) 49% - Democratic Pick-Up

New Hampshire 1st - Carol Shea-Porter (D-Inc) 52%, Jeb Bradley (R) 48% - Democratic Hold

New Jersey 3rd - John Adler (R) 50.1%, Christopher Myers (R) 49.9% - Democratic Pick-Up

*New Jersey 5th - Scott Garrett (R-Inc) 54%, Dennis Shulman (D) 46% - Republican Hold

New Jersey 7th - Linda Stender (D) 49.2%, Leonard Lance (R) 48.8, Michael Hsing (I) 2% - Democratic Pick Up

New Mexico 1st - Martin Heinrich (D) 53%, Darren White (R) 47% - Democratic Pick Up

New Mexico 2nd - Harry Teague (D) 53%, Edward Tinsley (R) 47% - Democratic Pick Up

Nevada 3rd - Dina Titus (D) 51%, Jon Porter (R-Inc) 49% - Democratic Pick Up

New York 13th - Michael McMahon (D) 55%, Robert Straniere (R) 43%, Others 2% - Democratic Pick Up

New York 25th - Dan Maffei (D) 58%, Dan Sweetland (R) 42% - Democratic Pick Up

New York 26th - Chris Lee (R) 50.5%, Alice Kryzan (D) 49.5% - Republican Hold

New York 29th - Eric Massa (D) 52%, Randy Kuhl (R-Inc) 48% - Democratic Pick Up

Ohio 1st - Steve Driehaus (D) 50.1, Steve Chabot (R-Inc) 49.9% - Democratic Pick Up

Ohio 2nd - Jean Schmidt (R-Inc) 47%, Vic Wulsin (D) 46%, David Kirkorian (I) 7% - Republican Hold

Ohio 15th - Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 51%, Steven Stivers (R) 46%, Others 3% - Democratic Pick Up

Ohio 16th - John Boccieri (D) 54%, J. Kirk Schuring (R) 46% - Democratic Pick Up

Pennsylvania 3rd - Kathy Dahlkemper (D) 52%, Phil English (R-Inc) 48% - Democratic Pick Up

Pennsylvania 11th - Lou Barletta (R) 54%, Paul Kanjorski (D-Inc) 46% - Republican Pick Up

Pennsylvania 12th - Jack Murtha (D-Inc) 53%, William Russell (R) 47% - Democratic Hold

Pennsylvania 15th - Charles Dent (R-Inc) 52%, Sam Bennett (D) 48% - Republican Hold

*South Carolina 1st - Henry Brown (R-Inc) 56%, Linda Ketner (D) 44% - Republican Hold

Texas 10th - Michael McCaul (R-Inc) 53%, Larry Doherty (D) 47% - Republican Hold

Texas 22nd - Pete Olson (R) 54%, Nick Lampson (D-Inc) 46% - Republican Pick Up

Virginia 5th - Virgil Goode (R-Inc) 51.5%, Tom Perriello (D) 48.5% - Republican Hold

Virginia 11th - Gerry Connolly (D) 56%, Keith Fimian (R) 44% - Democratic Pick Up

Washington 4th - Doc Hastings (R-Inc) 52%, George Fearing (D) 48% - Republican Hold

Washington 8th - David Reichert (R-Inc) 50.4%, Darcy Burner (D) 49.6% - Republican Hold

Wisconsin 8th - Steve Kagen (D-Inc) 54%, John Gard (R) 46% - Democratic Hold

Wyoming At-Large - Cynthia Lummis (R) 50%, Gary Trauner (D) 48%, David Herbert (L) 2% - Republican Hold

Totals
Democratic Pick Ups: 27
Republican Pick Ups: 3
Net Gain: 24 Democrats

Democrats 260, Republicans 175

Welcome to the Political Predictor

Yes, you have seen Charlie Cook. And I am sure you have seen Larry Sabato. Now I, Dave Trotter, plan on taking on the top dogs of the political prediction world.

Welcome to my blog.

Enjoy!