Update on "too close to call" races

It has been over a week since election and there are still a handful of Federal elections that are still too close to call.

Overnight in Alaska, Republican Senator Ted Stevens has lost his lead over Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. As of yesterday, Begich had a 814 vote lead over Stevens. Still, there are nearly 40,000 votes that still need to be counted. Counting starts again today and we will have new numbers by the end of the day.

In Minnesota, nothing has changed. Senator Norm Coleman still has a 206 vote lead over Democratic challenger Al Franken. The recount hasn't started yet, but should some time next week.

In Georgia, John McCain has stated that he will help Saxby Chambliss in the Senate race in that state. On the other hand, the Tim Martin campaign said that nobody should expect Barack Obama to come down to the Peach State anytime soon.

In the House there are still three races that are too close to call.

According to Megan Savage of The Lantern (the Ohio State University newspaper), Mary Jo Kilroy's Communications Director Brad Bauman said that they are "in a bit of a holding pattern right now." Franklin County, Ohio still has 20,000 to 30,000 votes to be counted with only a 393 vote difference between Steve Stivers and Mary Jo Kilroy.

In the Virginia 5th, media sources are starting to declare Democratic challenger Tom Perriello the winner over Republican incumbent Virgil Goode. According to the Boorkneal Union-Star, with only 10 votes left to be confirmed, Perriello holds a 407 vote lead. The results will be officially certified on November 24th, where at that time Goode can challenge those results, which he will more than likely do. Out of the seats that are currently undecided, this is the one that is most decided. It is highly unlikely that Virgil Goode is going back to Congress.

In the California 4th, thousands of votes still need to be counted in the race between Republican Tom McClintock and Democrat Charlie Brown. Currently, McClintock has 928 vote lead over Brown.

Latest poll in Quebec

Here is the latest poll coming out of Quebec for the National Assembly election next month.

Leger Marketing (for The Gazette, Le Journal de Montréal and the TVA network) 1,001 Quebecers surveyed

Liberal 41%
PQ 35%
ADQ 14%

Jean Charest has an approval rating of 55%.

Another race is called, Dems pick up the Maryland 5th

Democrat Frank Kratovil has been declared the winner of Maryland's 1st Congressional District by CNN. Kratovil defeats Republican Andrew Harris by 2,000 votes.

The only races yet to be called in the House are the California 4th, Ohio 15th and the Virginia 5th. Republicans lead the California and Ohio races, but the Democrat leads in Virginia.

Another race complete, WA 8th to Reichert

Then there were only four races left.

In the Washington 8th, most media outlets have declared Republican Rep. Dave Reichert the winner.

With 77% of the vote in, Reichert has pulled out a 6,400 vote lead over Democratic challenger Darcy Burner. Reichert now has the lead in King County, which pretty much sealed up the fate of Darcy Burner.

This website correctly predicted Reichert as the winner of the Washington 8th. The Crystal Ball website picked Burner.

In races that both websites disagreed (which were four), The Political Predictor has been correct on three, while the Crystal Ball has none correct. The last race of disagreement is the Minnesota race, where this website has predicted that Al Franken will win this race.

Too close to call race updates.

One Senate race is solved, and that is in Oregon.

In the last day, The Oregonian declared Jeff Merkley the winner of the Oregon US Senate seat over Republican incumbent Gordon Smith. With 94% of the vote in, Merkley has opened up a 3% lead over Smith. The rest of the precincts to report are in strong Democratic areas.

In Georgia, Saxby Chambliss is heading for a runoff against State Representative Tim Martin. Chambliss failed to get the 50% required to avoid a runoff. With 99% of the vote in, Chambliss has 49.83% of the vote. The runoff is scheduled for December 2nd.

In the Minnesota Senate race, Al Franken has closed to within 236 votes of incumbent Senator Norm Coleman. This race, no matter who wins this final count, is heading to a runoff.

And the last Senate race that we are following is the race in Alaska, where incumbent Republican Ted Stevens is still leading. Stevens currently holds a lead of 3,257 votes over Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. There are still 60,000 absentee ballots and 9,000 early votes yet to be counted. As soon as these are in, we should get a better idea.

There are still five House seats that are currently too close.

In the Virginia 5th, the Virginia Democratic Party is claiming victory. Tom Perriello is leading incumbent Republican Virgil Goode by 648 votes, and the margin keeps widening. Perriello said to reporters that he feels confident that they have enough votes, and that a recount won't change the outcome of the election. Still, Goode is not conceeding, and a recount is expected.

Perriello also said that he expects the final number of this initial count to be completed by noon today.

In the Washington 8th, Republican incumbent Dave Riechert is increasing his gap over challenger Darcy Burner. There is still nearly one-third of the votes to be counted, but it seems that Riechert is increasing his lead with votes coming in from Pierce County. It will be days until we know the result of this election.

In the Maryland 1st, Frank Kratovil continues to increase his lead over Andrew Harris as absentee votes are currently being counted. Kratovil has a lead of 2,000 votes. There are about 7,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted, mostly from Hartford County.

NBC 4 in Columbus, Ohio has just reported that in Ohio's 15th District Congressional race, the gap between Steven Stivers and Mary Jo Kilroy has widened. Union County has new results coming in, which has given Stivers 244 additional votes. Stivers currently has a lead of 390 votes. Franklin County will count their provisional ballots next week.

And finally in the California 4th, State Senator Tom McClintock has a 709 vote edge over Democrat Charlie Brown. There are still a number of provisional and mail-in ballots dropped off at polling places that still need to be counted. The Sacramento Bee says that counting these additional ballots could take weeks.

Post Election Analysis

Election Day is now behind us and now we are going to compare The Political Predictor Blog predictions to the actual results.

We are not going into the mention the races we won in Congress, just the ones that we lost. Mention the winning ones will just take too much time.

So here we go!

In the Presidential race, this website predicted that Obama would win 353 electoral votes. He ended up winning 364 electoral votes. The only state that was predicted incorrectly was Indiana.

In the US Senate, this website has currently predicted all of the winners. There are two Senate seats still in the air. Minnesota is doing a recount and Alaska is still counting. This website predicted the Democratic candidates to win both races.

In the House of Representatives, there was a number of races that were up. Many of those races were surprises. The others were expected to be close. Here are the races that this website predicted incorrectly. The actual result is in bold.

* = incumbent

Alabama 2nd
Jay Love (R) 51.6%, Bobby Bright (D)48.4%
Jay Love (R) 49.7%, Bobby Bright (D)50.3%

Alaska
Berkowitz (D) 52.2%, Young* (R) 47.1%, Wright (AKIP) .7%
Brekowitz (D) 43.9%, Young* (R) 51.6%, Wright (AKIP) 4.3%

California 4th
Charlie Brown (D) 51.2%, Tom McClintock (R) 48.8%
This race is currently too close to call

Illinois 10th
Dan Seals (D) 50.5%, Mark Kirk* (R) 49.5%
Dan Seals (D) 45.4%, Mark Kirk* (R) 54.6%

Kansas 2nd
Nancy Boyda* (D) 52%, Lynn Jenkins (R) 48%
Nancy Boyda* (D) 477%, Lynn Jenkins (R) 52.3%

Louisiana 6th
Donald Cazayoux* (D) 51, William Cassidy (R) 43%, Michael Jackson (I) 6%
Donald Cazayoux* (D) 40.3%, William Cassidy (R) 48.1%, Michael Jackson (I) 11.6%

Maryland 1st
Andrew Harris (R) 53%, Frank Kratovil (D) 47%
This race is currently too close to call

Minnesota 6th
Tinklenberg (D) 48%, Bachmann* (R) 46%, Anderson (MIN) 6%
Tinklenberg (D) 42.9%, Bachmann* (R) 46.9%, Anderson (MIN) 10.2%

New Jersey 7th
Stender (D) 49.2%, Lance (R) 48.8, Hsing (I) 2%
Stender (D) 45%, Lance (R) 55%, Hsing (I) 0%

Ohio 15th
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 51%, Steven Stivers (R) 46%, Others 3%
This race is currently too close to call

Pennsylvania 11th
Barletta (R) 54%, Kanjorski* (D) 46%
Barletta (D)48.4%, Kanjorski* (D) 51.6%

Virginia 5th
Virgil Goode (R-Inc) 51.5%, Tom Perriello (D) 48.5%
This race is currently too close to call

Washington 8th
David Reichert (R-Inc) 50.4%, Darcy Burner (D) 49.6%
This race is currently too close to call

There are five Congressional races that are still too close to call. We will update this site as soon as we have final results.

But as of now, here is the final summary:

Presidential Race:
This site - 50 correct, 1 incorrect.
Crystal Ball - 49 correct, 2 incorrect
Final - Political Predictor +1

Senatorial Races:
This site - 32 currently correct
Crystal Ball - 32 currently correct
Final - Tied

House Predictions:
This site - 422 correct, 8 incorrect (current)
Crystal Ball -421 correct, 9 incorrect (current)
Final - Political Predictor +1

Current Final Predictions:
This site - 98.25% accurate
Crystal Ball - 97.67% accurate

Presidential Election Final Prediction

Here are my final predictions for the Presidential Election. Red is Democrat and blue is Republican.

Larry Sabato and I agree on all states except one: Missouri. Sabato has Obama winning the state. I have McCain winning it.

So there you go. My final prediction: Obama 353, McCain 185